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| Recent trends indicate a complex landscape for commodity prices, heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic events. Silver has gained traction as a sought-after investment amidst uncertainty, while oil markets remain volatile due to conflicts in the Middle East impacting supply dynamics. In addition, agricultural commodities are facing challenges due to economic conditions in key exporting countries. Overall, the interplay of these factors is shaping investor sentiment and market movements. The price action of Commodities (DBC) asset class is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to asset-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at 1.2 is very bullish. The market sentiment at 0.4 is modestly bullish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.DBC is likely to move up since both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive. The positive sentiment force for sector is at 0.5, and the negative at -0.1 on 2026-03-01. The forces of Asset Price Trend (1.2), Asset Sentiment (0.6), and Option Sentiment (0) will drive up the price. The forces of and Price Level Sentiment (-0.5) will drive down the price. The sentiment for Asset Price Trend is calculated based on DBC trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Asset Sentiment scores are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band. |
| DBC | ||||||||||||||
| Date | Attention | Price | StdDev | Price Level | Change | 10 Day Trend | Trend Sentiment | Hourly Trend Sentiment | Hourly StdDev | Market Sentiment | Action | P | Asset Sentiment | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 2%(0.9%) | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -4.3 | |||||||||
| 2026-02-28 | 4%(0.6%) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -5.1 | |||||||||
| 2026-02-27 | 0%(0%) | 25.1 | 1.67% | 97 | 1.33% | 0.82% | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.6% | 1.1 | Wait | 50% | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-02-26 | 0%(0%) | 24.76 | 1.78% | 76 | 0.06% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.3% | 0.6 | Long | 55% | 1.3 | -6 |
| 2026-02-25 | 0%(0.1%) | 24.75 | 1.82% | 75 | 0.12% | 0% | 0.8 | 0 | 0.3% | 0.7 | Long | 55% | 0.8 | -1 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0%(0.3%) | 24.72 | 1.78% | 74 | -0.12% | 0.41% | 1.2 | 0 | 0.3% | 0.7 | Long | 55% | 0.1 | 7 |
| 2026-02-23 | 0%(0.4%) | 24.75 | 1.74% | 76 | 0.61% | 0.41% | 1.6 | 0 | 0.6% | 0.7 | Long | 65% | 0.2 | -1.5 |
| 2026-02-22 | 0%(0.6%) | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | |||||||||
| 2026-02-21 | 0%(0.6%) | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0 | |||||||||
| 2026-02-20 | 0%(0.7%) | 24.6 | 1.71% | 74 | 0.7% | 0.42% | 0.8 | 0 | 0.6% | 0.6 | Long | 55% | -0.1 | 5 |
| Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position. | ||||||||||||||
| Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force. | ||||||||||||||
| Market News | ||
| 1 (-2) OPEC+ Agrees To Boost Oil Output As US War On Iran Disrupts Shipments ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero (https://www.zerohedge.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 2 (-5) Oil Soars Over 10% In OTC Trading, Whether That Sticks Depends On How Long The War Lasts ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero (https://www.zerohedge.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 3 (0) Here’s where traders expect crude-oil prices to open after this weekend’s attack on Iran Crude-oil markets won’t officially open for a few more hours, but traders are already using prediction markets like Kalshi to take bets on where prices will settle on Monday. (https://www.barrons.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 4 (-7) US strikes in Iran could see oil prices jump $10 to $20 or more with no deescalation, OPEC+ raises barrel-per-day production quota After the US and Israel struck Iran with a series of air strikes on Saturday, triggering immediate retaliation, oil prices could jump by $10 to $20 or more. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 5 (-7) Iran strikes by Israel and the U.S. mean you’ll be paying a lot more for gasoline this spring, forecasts GasBuddy Why prices at the pump look to be headed as much as 50 cents higher by May — and possibly even more. (https://www.marketwatch.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 6 (-5) $100+ oil back in play if Hormuz disruption worsens: analysts $100+ oil back in play if Hormuz disruption worsens: analysts (https://www.investing.com/) Sun. Mar 1, 2026 | ||
| 7 (0) What's at stake for oil markets as Trump strikes Iran Iran sits on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for about a fifth of the world’s crude. (https://financialpost.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 8 (-7) What to watch in markets as Iran attacks stir up 'worst fears' for oil The attacks on Iran are likely to send oil prices surging. Barclays says Brent crude could test $100 a barrel on Monday. (https://www.businessinsider.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 9 (-7) Iran conflict raises talk of a return to $100-a-barrel oil The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, putting a key regional source of the world’s crude oil at risk and raising talk of a return to $100-a-barrel oil prices. (https://www.barrons.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 10 (-7) Ships Avoid Hormuz as Iran Media Says It’s Practically Shut Oil and gas tankers are increasingly avoiding the Hormuz shipping strait that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas after the US and Israel bombed Iran, with Iranian media saying the waterway is “practically closed.” (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 11 (-7) How the attack on Iran could impact the global oil market and economy The U.S.-Israeli attack raises the risk of major oil supply disruption. Iran is the fourth-largest OPEC producer and sits on the critical Strait of Hormuz. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 12 (-6) US-Israel Military Strikes on Iran Threaten Oil Supply, Markets Brace For Volatility On Saturday, the United States and Israel struck targets in Iran, rattling energy traders and raising fears that any escalation could choke flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude. (https://www.benzinga.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 13 (-5) Why Gas Prices Could Be Headed Higher After U.S. Attack on Iran Crude oil is the single biggest component of the price that drivers pay at the pump, accounting for over half the retail cost of gasoline. When oil rises, gasoline usually follows—though not instantly. (https://www.barrons.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 14 (1) OPEC+ to Weigh Bigger Hike After Iran Strike, Delegates Say OPEC+ will consider the option of a larger supply increase when key members meet Sunday after the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran, according to two delegates. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 15 (-6) Oil Tankers Avoid Hormuz After Naval Warnings Follow US Strikes Oil and gas tankers are increasingly avoiding the Hormuz shipping strait that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas after the US and Israel bombed Iran, with a large number of vessels holding outside of the waterway while some already transiting have turned back. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
| 16 (-7) US strikes against Iran could see oil prices jump $10 to $20 or more with no deescalation After the US and Israel struck Iran with a series of air strikes on Saturday, triggering immediate retaliation, oil prices could jump by $10 to $20 or more. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Sat. Feb 28, 2026 | ||
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