Recent developments indicate a strong bullish sentiment around the U.S. stock market, particularly with the S&P 500 approaching record highs. Investors are showing increased interest in equities, especially amidst discussions surrounding military spending and the potential for consumer stocks to lead market rallies. Despite some volatility and scrutiny related to Federal Reserve policies, the overall sentiment remains optimistic. Continued discussions around capital flows and sector performance highlight the dynamic nature of this market. The price action of U.S. Large Cap (SPY) asset class is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to asset-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at 0.2 is modestly bullish. The market sentiment at 0.6 is bullish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.SPY is likely to move up since both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive. The positive sentiment force for sector is at 1.1, and the negative at -0.5 on 2026-01-12. The forces of Asset Sentiment (4.1), and Asset Price Trend (0.2) will drive up the price. The forces of Price Level Sentiment (-0.5), and Option Sentiment (-1.3) will drive down the price. The sentiment for Asset Price Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Asset Sentiment scores are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

SPY
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	SMA10 Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Asset Sentiment	News Sentiment
2026-01-12	0%(0.9%)	695.17	90	0.16%	0.07%	0.2	0.04%	0.3%	0.7	Short	70%	4.1	2.5
2026-01-11	0%(1%)					0.4	0%		1.1			4.5	0
2026-01-10	1%(1.1%)					0.4	0%		1.1			4.2	3.3
2026-01-09	1%(1.1%)	694.04	89	0.66%	0.06%	0.4	0%	0.3%	0.7	Long	70%	4.2	6.7
2026-01-08	1%(1.1%)	689.52	72	-0.01%	0.01%	-0.4	-0.01%	0.2%	0.7	Short	60%	4.3	4.3
2026-01-07	1%(1.3%)	689.61	74	-0.32%	0.07%	0.2	0.01%	0.2%	0.8	Long	60%	4.3	4.1
2026-01-06	2%(1.4%)	691.79	87	0.59%	0.17%	0.2	0.06%	0.4%	0.6	Wait	50%	4	5.9
2026-01-05	1%(1.3%)	687.7	70	0.66%	0.16%	-0.7	0.01%	0.4%	0.5	Wait	50%	3.9	6.1
2026-01-04	1%(1.3%)					-0.3	-0.08%		1			4.1	0
2026-01-03	1%(1.9%)					-0.3	-0.04%		1.2			5	-6
Short is the preferred trading strategy with 70% chance of being right. The hourly trend is almost flat and the price has reached close to the upper boundary of Bollinger band. Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.