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Financials Sector (XLF) Stock Price Prediction and News Highlight
Tue. Jan 13, 2026

Recent developments indicate a strong engagement with technology and innovation in asset management, particularly through the adoption of AI by major financial institutions. The focus on international investment opportunities and the pivotal role of the sector in economic growth underscore its importance moving forward. However, ongoing regulatory pressures and investigations are raising concerns about stock performance, particularly related to major players in the market. Quarterly earnings reports are projected to influence investor sentiment significantly as the market navigates these challenges.

The price action of Financials (XLF) sector is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to company-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -0.3 is modestly bearish. The market sentiment at 1 is bullish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.There is no clear direction for XLF since trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. The positive sentiment force for Financials sector is at 1, and the negative at -0.1 on 2026-01-13. The forces of Valuation Sentiment (2.7), Sentiment towards Fundamentals (1.6), Market Risk Appetite (0.9), Price Level Sentiment (0.5), Broad Market Trend (0.3), and Option Sentiment (0.2) will drive up the price. The forces of and Sector Price Trend (-0.3) will drive down the price.

The sentiment for Broad Market Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Sector Price Trend is calculated based on XLF trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. The Risk Prefrence is calculated from Bitcoin price trend. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Valuation Sentiment, and Sentimentals towards Fundamentals are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.


XLF
DateAttentionPricePrice
Level
ChangeSMA10
Trend
Trend
Sentiment
Hourly
Trend
Hourly
StdDev
Market
Sentiment
ActionPFund.News
Sentiment
2026-01-133%(1.6%)      54.25 2    -1.86%    -0.18%    -0.3    -0.18%    1%    1    Long    70%    1.6    2.8   
2026-01-121%(1.3%)      55.28 49    -0.81%    -0.18%    -0    -0.18%    0.7%    0.9    Short    65%    2.1    -1.6   
2026-01-110%(1.3%)    0.6    0%   1.4          2.7    4.5   
2026-01-102%(1.4%)    0.6    0%   1.3          2.6    6   
2026-01-091%(1.4%)      55.73 71    -0.33%    0%    0.6    0%    0.3%    1.3    Long    65%    2.7    4.1   
2026-01-081%(1.4%)      55.92 80    0.58%    0.18%    0.4    0%    0.5%    1    Wait    50%    2.5    4.9   
2026-01-073%(1.3%)      55.6 68    -1.44%    0%    0.3    0%    0.6%    0.9    Wait    50%    2.3    3.3   
2026-01-061%(0.9%)      56.41 99    0.5%    0.36%    0.5    0.18%    1.1%    1    Wait    50%    2.4    4.5   
2026-01-051%(1%)      56.13 95    2.17%    0.18%    0.3    0.18%    1.3%    0.6    Wait    50%    2.1    4.8   
2026-01-041%(1%)    -0.3    -0.08%   0.2          1.3    -8.5   
 
Long is the preferred trading strategy with 70% chance of being right. The rebound is expected after the huge price drop today. The trend sentiment and hourly trend are not too bearish.

Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.

Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.

  Analysis
The Current Trends in Financials Sector (XLF) Sun. Oct 5, 2025
Financials Earnings Pulse: What XLF’s Leaders Are Signaling Now Sun. Oct 5, 2025
  Market News
 
1 (-4) Capital One and 6 More Financial Stocks to Buy After Trump Rattled the Market The president’s Friday call for a 10% cap on credit-card rates have hit shares from Citigroup to Synchrony Financial. (https://www.barrons.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
2 (5) Visa, Mastercard Slump on Trump’s Credit Card Cap Plan. Why the Proposal Could Help the Stocks. Analysts at Mizuho and Morgan Stanley reiterate buy-equivalent ratings for Visa and Mastercard after Trump proposes a cap on credit card rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
3 (6) Trump Targets Card Swipe Fees After Interest Rate Threats First President Donald Trump targeted the interest rates credit-card companies levy against US consumers. Now he’s targeting the interchange fees that merchants must pay to tap, swipe and insert their cards at checkout by endorsing a measure on Capitol Hill that aims to boost competition among payment networks. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
4 (6) Bank Of America Q4 Preview: Top Buffett Holding Helps Kick Off Earnings Season Bank of America is one of several financial companies reporting earnings this week. Here's what investors should expect. (https://www.benzinga.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
5 (5) Visa, Mastercard Slump on Trump’s Credit Card Cap Plan. Why the Proposal Could Help the Stocks. Analysts at Mizuho and Morgan Stanley reiterate buy-equivalent ratings for Visa and Mastercard after Trump proposes a cap on credit card rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
 
6 (-5) Capital One and 6 More Financial Stocks to Buy After Trump Rattled the Market The president’s Friday call for a 10% cap on credit-card rates have hit shares from Citigroup to Synchrony Financial. (https://www.barrons.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
7 (2) Dimon Tells Investors to ‘Trust Me’ on JPMorgan’s Costs JPMorgan Chase & Co. will continue to spend what’s needed to avoid losing ground to myriad competitors, including Stripe Inc., SoFi Technologies Inc. and Charles Schwab Corp., Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
8 (5) JPMorgan is lower after better-than-expected results. Is it a buying opportunity? Wall Street analysts largely framed the pullback as profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in the outlook. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
9 (-2) JPMorgan Chase's Shares Nosedive After Q4 Results, This Analyst Remains Bullish Despite lower-than-expected revenues, JPMorgan reported in line earnings on the back of better expenses, Goldman Sachs analyst notes. (https://www.benzinga.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
10 (-3) JPMorgan's guidance seemed especially 'conservative.' Here's why. JPMorgan Chase stock (JPM) is under some pressure in Tuesday's trading session after the major bank's earnings fell below fourth quarter estimates when accounting for the costs related to the Apple Card (AAPL) deal. HSBC Head of US Financials Research Saul Martinez discusses JPMorgan's earnings release and how it factors into his broader outlook for the major bank in 2026. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
 
11 (6) Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan has to invest in AI or risk getting 'left behind' Dimon said the bank's expected $9 billion spending increase would help it stay competitive not only with other big banks, but also fintech companies. (https://www.businessinsider.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
12 (8) JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Says US Economy Resilient, Consumers Are Spending JPMorgan Chase reported Q4 2025 earnings with $46.8B revenue beating estimates, strong Markets growth, solid ROE, and resilient consumer and business activity. (https://www.benzinga.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
13 (0) U.S. stocks mixed after CPI release; JPMorgan earnings also in spotlight U.S. stocks mixed after CPI release; JPMorgan earnings also in spotlight (https://www.investing.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
14 (5) Jamie Dimon backs Fed Chair Powell amid DOJ probe: 'Everyone we know believes in Fed independence' JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is the latest top voice in the banking world to lend his support to embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
15 (4) Stock market today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq mixed as CPI inflation eases, JPMorgan kicks off earnings Wall Street is reacting to "core" CPI coming in below expectations against a backdrop of local and foreign political disruption. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
 
16 (-5) Stocks in the financials sector are leading today's losses Stocks in the financials sector were off to a rough start to the trading day on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Financials Sector Index was down around 1.3%, with stocks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. seeing moderate losses. This comes after President Donald Trump proposed a cap on (https://www.marketwatch.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
17 (7) Pimco Sees US Mortgage Bond Purchases Boosting Returns US efforts to bring down the cost of housing through buying mortgage securities are bolstering a bullish outlook at Pacific Investment Management Co, one of the world’s largest bond managers. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
18 (6) US Bancorp to Buy Brokerage BTIG for $1 Billion in Trading Push US Bancorp, the country’s largest regional bank, will acquire brokerage BTIG for $1 billion as it looks to push deeper into investment banking and trading. (https://www.bloomberg.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
19 (0) Here’s what Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data could mean for Fed rate policy Here’s what Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data could mean for Fed rate policy (https://www.investing.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
20 (8) JPMorgan Chase earnings top estimates amid trading unit strength JPMorgan Chase earnings top estimates amid trading unit strength (https://www.investing.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
 
21 (6) Bank sector is hitting this 'trifecta,' set to outperform S&P 500 Earnings season starts for major banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) this week, all of these major financial stocks set to report fourth quarter earnings results throughout the week. RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy shares his perspective on the KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) outperforming the S&P 500 (^GSPC), while also discussing his outlook for regional bank stocks Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and M&T Bank (MTB). Also hear Gerard Cassidy explain why President Trump's suggested 10% cap on credit card rates would have "real negative repercussions" for borrowers. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
22 (7) JPMorgan’s CFO warns on credit-card rate proposal as earnings top expectations JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday marked the unofficial beginning to fourth-quarter earnings season with forecasting-beating results. (https://www.marketwatch.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
23 (8) Bank earnings to cap banner 2025, set the table for growth in 2026: 'Everything is moving up at the same time' Big Bank earnings will kick off Q4 earnings season this week. It will be a celebration of sorts for the industry after another banner year for shares of the country's largest financial firms. (https://finance.yahoo.com/) Tue. Jan 13, 2026
24 (7) 2 Stocks That Will Benefit From Trump’s Call to Cap Credit-Card Interest Rates Mizuho Securities says fintech companies like SoFi and Affirm could benefit from Trump’s proposed cap on interest rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
25 (-7) JPMorgan Chase, AmEx, Capital One and More Stocks Dive. Trump’s Credit-Card Plan Sparks Panic. Citigroup, JPMorgan, American Express and other financial stocks were falling early Monday after President Donald Trump called for a cap of 10% on credit-card interest rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
 
26 (-7) JPMorgan Chase, AmEx, Capital One and More Stocks Dive. Trump’s Credit-Card Plan Sparks Panic. Citigroup, JPMorgan, American Express and other financial stocks were falling early Monday after President Donald Trump called for a cap of 10% on credit-card interest rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
27 (6) Fidelity Gets Back in the Business of Underwriting Muni Bonds After Citigroup exited the municipal bond underwriting business in 2024, Fidelity saw an opportunity to jump back in. (https://www.barrons.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
28 (-6) Citi, JPMorgan, American Express Stocks Dive. Trump’s Credit Card Plan Sparks Panic. Citigroup, JPMorgan, American Express and other financial stocks were falling early Monday after President Donald Trump called for a cap of 10% on credit-card interest rates. (https://www.barrons.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
29 (2) JPMorgan's looming question: What happens when CEO Jamie Dimon leaves? JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon marks 20 years as CEO this month. Insiders say he remains as involved as ever managing the sprawling operations of the megabank. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
30 (6) Cold applying is still the No. 1 way to get a new job, but this method is quickly getting more common The share of people being recruited and referred into jobs is climbing. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
 
31 (-7) Trump's credit card rate cap plan has unclear path, 'devastating' risks, bank insiders say A 10% rate cap would make large swaths of the credit card industry unprofitable, especially tied to customers with less-than-ideal credit, banks say. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026
32 (-4) Treasury yields increase after DOJ Powell probe raises concern about Fed independence U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors reacted to the announcement of the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. (https://www.cnbc.com/) Mon. Jan 12, 2026


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