Recent discussions indicate a notable increase in retail activity during the holiday season, showcasing growth potential for major players in the market. However, the sector is also facing challenges, particularly due to the adverse effects of tariffs on products like boots and bags, which could dampen overall profitability. Companies like Walmart and Costco are adapting their strategies to manage inventory effectively and remain competitive in the evolving landscape. The sentiment around the sector remains mixed as retailers prepare for a crucial shopping period. The price action of Retail (XRT) sector is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to company-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -0.2 is modestly bearish. The market sentiment at -0.3 is modestly bearish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.XRT is likely to move down since both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative. The positive sentiment force for Retail sector is at 0.1, and the negative at -0.4 on 2025-12-27. The forces of Sentiment towards Fundamentals (-1), Market Risk Appetite (-0.6), Valuation Sentiment (-0.5), and Sector Price Trend (-0.2) will drive down the price. The forces of Price Level Sentiment (0), Option Sentiment (0), and Broad Market Trend (0.6) will drive up the price. The sentiment for Broad Market Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Sector Price Trend is calculated based on XRT trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. The Risk Prefrence is calculated from Bitcoin price trend. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Valuation Sentiment, and Sentimentals towards Fundamentals are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

XRT
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	SMA10 Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Fund.	News Sentiment
2025-12-27	0%(0%)					-0.2	0.12%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2025-12-26	0%(0%)	87.24	63	-0.04%	-0.23%	-0.2	0.12%	0.4%	-0	Long	65%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-25	0%(0%)					0.1	0%		0.1			-1	-0.5
2025-12-24	0%(0%)	87.27	64	1.03%	0%	0.1	0%	0.4%	0.4	Long	60%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-23	0%(0%)	86.38	51	-0.86%	-0.11%	-0.3	0%	0.5%	0.1	Short	65%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-22	0%(0%)	87.13	65	-0.44%	0.23%	-0.3	0%	0.2%	0.1	Wait	50%	-1	7.5
2025-12-21	0%(0%)					0.4	0%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2025-12-20	0%(0%)					0.4	0%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2025-12-19	0%(0%)	87.52	70	0.29%	0.11%	0.4	0%	0.4%	0	Long	65%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-18	0%(0%)	87.26	68	0.01%	0.23%	0.3	-0.11%	0.4%	-0	Short	65%	-1	-0.5
Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.