Recent trends indicate that consumer behavior is evolving, with notable performances from leading retailers. Events in late 2025 showcased growth for companies like Costco, signaling positive traffic and sales trends. However, this optimism is juxtaposed with challenges faced by the sector, including the exit of iconic brands due to mounting economic pressures. The overall sentiment remains mixed as retailers navigate both growth opportunities and significant hurdles. The price action of Retail (XRT) sector is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to company-specific performance and market structure. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.There is no clear direction for XRT since trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. The positive sentiment force for Retail sector is at 0.4, and the negative at -0.4 on 2026-01-05. The forces of Sentiment towards Fundamentals (-1), Broad Market Trend (-0.7), and Valuation Sentiment (-0.5) will drive down the price. The forces of Sector Price Trend (-0), Price Level Sentiment (0), Market Risk Appetite (0.9), and Option Sentiment (1.5) will drive up the price. The sentiment for Broad Market Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Sector Price Trend is calculated based on XRT trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. The Risk Prefrence is calculated from Bitcoin price trend. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Valuation Sentiment, and Sentimentals towards Fundamentals are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

XRT
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	SMA10 Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Fund.	News Sentiment
2026-01-05	0%(0%)	86.95	48	1.21%	-0.12%	-0	0.12%	0.9%	0	Long	65%	-1	-6.5
2026-01-04	0%(0%)					-0.3	-0.08%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2026-01-03	0%(0%)					-0.3	0%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2026-01-02	0%(0%)	85.91	23	0.73%	-0.12%	-0.3	0%	0.3%	0.1	Wait	50%	-1	-0.5
2026-01-01	0%(0%)					0.8	-0.12%		0.1			-1	-0.5
2025-12-31	0%(0%)	85.29	7	-0.76%	-0.23%	0.8	-0.12%	0.6%	0.4	Long	70%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-30	0%(0%)	85.94	29	-0.74%	-0.23%	0.4	-0.12%	0.4%	0	Short	65%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-29	0%(0%)	86.58	47	-0.75%	-0.11%	0	0%	0.3%	0.2	Long	65%	-1	-0.5
2025-12-28	0%(0%)					-0.2	0.12%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
2025-12-27	0%(0%)					-0.2	0.12%		-0.3			-1	-0.5
Long is the preferred trading strategy with 65% chance of being right. Improving trend sentiment and positive hourly trend. Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.